Your guide to Game 3 of the NBA Finals

With the series tied 1-1, here are the key things to keep an eye on in tonight's match-up

Jimmy Butler & co are back in Miami for Games 3 & 4 of the NBA Finals, and tonight they have the chance to shock the world and take a 2-1 lead. Stakes are high as the Heat now have home-court advantage, so the Nuggets will be desperate to steal a win on the road. Let’s dive in to what you should focus on when watching tonight’s game.

Miami’s new “big” line-up

The first adjustment Erik Spoelstra made after suffering a loss in Game 1 was adding Kevin Love back in to the Heat’s starting line-up. This was an obvious move against a Denver side which boasts a size advantage at almost every position on the court. In Game 1, Aaron Gordon got the Nuggets off to a hot start by utilising his strength and size to score in the paint against smaller defenders, as he found himself guarded by Caleb Martin, Max Strus or Gabe Vincent in transition, or when Jimmy Butler switched away from him to on screening actions. In Game 2, the 6’8 Kevin Love guarded Gordon, meaning he couldn’t utilise his size in the same way.

The other advantage of Kevin Love guarding Aaron Gordon, is that this freed up Jimmy Butler to defend Jamal Murray. In Game 1, Butler guarded Murray only 4 times in half-court possessions, this jumped to 35 times in Game 2. This led to Murray having fewer touches on the ball, and having to battle against a taller, stronger opponent who has the lateral speed to stay with him. The result: Murray taking 7 fewer shots, scoring 8 fewer points, and grabbing 2 fewer rebounds. Butler causing problems for Murray was highlighted in the final possession in which Jamal had the chance to hit a three to send the game to overtime, however Jimmy contesting his shot perfectly forced the miss.

The Denver Nuggets need to find a way to prevent Jimmy from staying attached to Murray, possibly by running more off-ball screens before he catches the ball.

As always: defence wins championships

We saw two polar opposites in Game 2. The Denver Nuggets failed to communicate effectively on the defensive side of the ball, and on the other hand, Miami Heat were a well oiled machine. Even when Denver did try to communicate their defensive coverages, things were no better.

“They are playing off of our coverages,” said Michael Porter Jr of the Nuggets. “They are hearing what we are communicating to each other, and they’re doing the opposite. If we say ‘switch,’ they are slipping out for open 3s. And if we don’t say ‘switch,’ they are actually going to set the screen.”

The Denver Nuggets urgently need to address this, as Miami’s shooters (Strus, Vincent, Martin) are hitting threes at a rate not seen since Steph Curry, Klay Thompson & Kevin Durant teamed up on one of the most dominant sides ever to win the 2017 NBA Championship. That’s not to mention the red-hot shooting of Duncan Robinson who almost single-handedly got the Heat back into the game at the start of the fourth quarter in Game 2.

On the other hand, Miami played an amazing defensive game in the fourth quarter. In Game 1, they were hesitant to use their zone defence when Nikola Jokic was on the court as his size and passing ability from the middle of the floor causes even more problems than usual when you aren’t matched-up man-to-man. In Game 2, they went to the zone in the 4th quarter and made sure there was a player attached to Jokic denying him the ability to catch the ball, and when he did they were pressed up on him making passes difficult. Take a deeper dive into Miami’s Game 2 defence with yesterday’s video.

When the Miami Heat run their zone, the average time per possession for the Nuggets on offence is 19.9 seconds, compared to 16.9 seconds when they defend man-to-man. The 3 seconds difference in possessions may not seem like a lot, but when this is multiplied across numerous plays, it slows down the entire game. Miami want to play a grind-it-out slow game, where as Denver want to take advantage of their athleticism by getting out and running in transition. It’s imperative for Denver that they can push the pace in Game 3. The Heat have done a great job of taking time off the shot clock by pressing up high when the Nuggets bring the ball up the court, meaning Denver has less time to get into their actions and settle for lower quality shots.

Unexpected Contributions

BJ Armstrong (3x NBA champion) frequently stresses the importance of “unexpected contributions” when discussing how to win in the playoffs on The Hoop Genius Podcast. We saw this for Denver in Game 2, with Christian Braun making great plays on offence and defence coming off the bench; however the Nuggets are in desperate need of their third star Michael Porter Jr to step up to the task at hand. After praising his defensive efforts in Game 1, he was abhorrent in Game 2.

Even if his defence is sub-par, coach Mike Malone needs to find a way to get MPJ easy looks to start Game 3 so that he can find his rhythm. Get stops on defence and let him score a few easy baskets in transition, or run off-ball screens for him to get easy lay-ups in the half-court. Porter Jr is 3-17 from three so far this series. A lowly 17.6% is a far cry from 42.4% he shot in the Conference Finals sweep of the Lakers. If Porter can’t break out of this slump, and is a liability defensively, the Nuggets should consider replacing him late in the game with Braun if the rookie can keep up his great play. The Nuggets were outscored by 15 points when MPJ was on the court in Game 2, simply not the contribution you would expect from a player who signed a 5 year / $179,299,750 contract.

Get your work done early

If I’m the Denver Nuggets, I need to make sure that this game is won by the end of the 3rd quarter. Somehow, some way, the Miami Heat are an unstoppable force in clutch situations. As cliche as this is, we have to give credit to the culture built by Pat Riley and Coach Spo because their band of undrafted players are not phased by the high-pressure end of game situations.

Heat point differential through 20 playoff games (according to John Schuhmann)

• 1st quarter: -1

• 2nd quarter: -11

• 3rd quarter: -12

• 4th quarter: +90

This is nothing new, we saw them do this the last time they made it though the NBA Playoffs to the 2020 Finals.

• 1st quarter: -28

• 2nd quarter: -3

• 3rd quarter: -21

• 4th quarter: +94

Perhaps I was wrong when I said Jimmy Butler needs to score 40 for the Heat to win, all they need to do is keep the game closer enough for “Playoff Jimmy” to close things out for them either through his scoring or playmaking late in the game.

Who Will Win?

Honestly, I have no idea. The mistakes made by Denver looked a lot like comfortability, complacency and lack of effort - so until we see which version of the Nuggets turns up for Game 3, I can’t make a judgement. What I do know, however, is that you need to listen to The Hoop Genius Podcast after the game for an analysis of what happened, and then subscribe to the Hoop Genius YouTube Channel for video breakdowns of the key factors in the game.

If you’re still reading, I just want to let you know how much I appreciate you. This newsletter is free to subscribe to, but if you’d like to support an independent creator - you can do for just $1 by using this special link for the NBA Finals. Enjoy the game and I’ll catch you after for everything you need to know. Blessings. Mo.