Your Guide to Game 4 of the NBA Finals
The Denver Nuggets have the chance to go up 3-1 in the NBA Finals tonight, what can the Heat do to stop them? Here's what you need to know.
The Miami Heat *must* defend their home-court to tie the series at 2-2 otherwise a 3-1 lead may be insurmountable for them in their quest for an NBA championship. In the last game, the Denver Nuggets simply outclassed them, whether it was their superstars both dropping 30-point triple-doubles, or their role players stepping up; Coach Spo needs to find some answers urgently.
The Two-Man Game
In Game 3, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray’s 11 assists to each other were the most in an NBA Finals game during the play-by-play era (since 1998). They also held the previous record of 9, which they set in Game 1. The majority of these assists game from pick-and-roll or dribble-hand-off actions where both defenders jumped out to Murray, with the big-man then making a last minute effort to recover to Jokic. As dangerous as Murray is attacking off these options, Nikola Jokic is far too efficient with his scoring and passing to run this strategy.
In Game 2, Miami found success with defenders denying Jokic from catching the ball, so they could look to simply switch the action and live with the outcome of a small defender having to deal with Jokic - as Bam Adebayo is more than capable of guarding perimeter players. Another other option would be to simply force Murray to the sideline instead of letting him use the screen (known as “icing” the action). The best option would be the player guarding Murray (usually Jimmy Butler) actually trying to fight through screens to stay with the Nuggets guard. There are two problems with this however: 1) Jokic is an absolute unit so fighting through screens he set is an extremely tough task, 2) Jimmy Butler’s defensive effort in Game 3 looked so much less intense than what we saw earlier in the post-season, maybe the ankle he turned against the Knicks is affecting him more than we know.
Rise of the Rookie
Although Jokic & Murray made history in Game 3, the most impressive performance came from Denver’s rookie Christian Braun. In my “Guide to Game 3” I proposed that the Nuggets play him instead of Michael Porter Jr in the 4th quarter as MPJ is struggling immensely this series, and that’s exactly what Michael Malone did, and the results were spectacular. Braun came off the bench to play amazing defence, create second chance opportunities for his team with his hustle and offensive rebounding, as well as scoring 15 points (7-8 from the field).
The biggest part of his scoring came through his activity as an off-ball cutter, something that wreaked havoc on Miami’s infamous zone defence.
Spo’s Bag of Tricks
The Denver Nuggets have seemingly found an answer to Miami’s zone. Nikola Jokic changing where he initiates the offence from, shifting from the nail (middle of free-throw line) to the low block (near bottom of the painted area on either side) forces Miami to have 4 defenders on one side of court, leaving two Denver players open on the other side to spot up for threes or cut to the hoop for lay-ups, with only one Heat defender trying to stop two Nuggets players. (Joe Mazzulla, PLEASE take notes and put Tatum in similar operating areas in the future)
Erik Spoelstra needs to find an alternative to the 1-3-1 zone that has worked so effectively in the Playoffs up until Game 3. Jokic is too skilled as a passer, and too big to have his scoring effected by smaller defenders when there’s no help, to play the same way tonight. Throwing two defenders at Jamal Murray when he’s attacking off screens or hand-offs didn’t work either. If Miami want to win tonight, not only do we need to see a generational defensive effort, but Spo may need to find a new scheme that we haven’t seen yet. The Toronto Raptors ran a box-and-one defence in the 2019 NBA Finals (one player attached to Stephen Curry while the other 4 zoned up) and that led to them winning the championship - do Miami do something similar against Murray tonight? How long will it take for Jokic to pick this apart? I’m not sure what Miami have in mind, but running the same schemes as they did in Game 3 will be a recipe for disaster, unless Denver have a complete offensive meltdown.
Who Will Win?
Based on what we saw in Game 3, it would be hard to bet against Denver. Having said that, there’s a reason Erik Spoelstra has won NBA champions and I have not - one of the best coaches the NBA has ever seen surely has one more card left to play. It’s not often I’d pick against the home team in a Game 4, especially after they’ve lost the previous match-up, however the Nuggets superstars are currently on a level above Jimmy & Bam. Their role players are stepping up whilst the Heat’s shooters have cooled off. If Denver win tonight, get ready for them to close it out in Game 5.
Miami must play with desperation. They must play harder than they ever have on the defensive end, and must execute on the other side of the ball. Both of their losses this season have come in games where they scored under 100 points. Scoring the basketball starts with getting stops on defence, their zone is no longer working so let’s see what they do. Getting Denver to miss shots is imperative to the Heat as they can then attack cross-matches on the other side, leading to their shooters getting open looks. In Game 3, the heat shot more tightly contested 3s than they have in any game this entire season. The Nuggets did a great job of not over-reacting to Jimmy Butler’s drives as he uses these to force the defence to collapse so he can find open shooters. The Nuggets stepped-up, each player took responsibility for their match-up, and took the lead in the series. Now it’s time for the Heat to do the same.
It should be a good one, enjoy the game. Thank you to everyone who has subscribed to this newsletter so far. If you’d like to support my work, please subscribe to my YouTube channel as we’re so close to 10k subs, listen to The Hoop Genius Podcast as we’re breaking down the action after the game, and consider supporting this newsletter with just £1 by using this limited time offer. Bless up. Mo.