Your Guide to Game 5 of the NBA Finals
Tonight, the Denver Nuggets have the chance to claim the first championship in their franchise's history, do the Miami Heat have any chance of stopping them?
Congratulations to the Denver Nuggets on winning the 2022-23 NBA championship. I know it’s a little early, but unless the Miami Heat can win the next 3 games in a row, it’s an almost certain outcome. Tyler Herro, a dynamic guard who averaged over 20 points per game this season, may make his return from a broken hand which he suffered during the first game of the first round of the Playoffs - but is this too little, too late?
Is Tyler Herro the hero Miami needs?
Herro’s status has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game, so there’s no guarantee he does, but on the chance that he steps onto the hardwood floor of the NBA Finals for the second time in his young career - will he make a difference to the outcome that the world is expecting?
As many shots as he can get up in the gym, or in practice with his teammates, nothing can come close to replicating the speed and intensity of an NBA game. Almost two months since he last appeared in a game, he will definitely have some rust to shake off - not to mention the pressure of trying to keep his team’s season alive. Injuries also have a mental impact that can cause hesitancy, for example - all on natural instinct the human body has to protect itself, not a conscious decision - he may be less aggressive attacking the basket, or diving on a loose ball, in fear of re-injuring his broken hand.
With Max Strus struggling so much in this series, Herro would be a welcome addition to the rotation and can provide instant offence off the bench, which may help the Heat disrupt Denver’s defensive rhythm. As great at Miami’s shooters have been this post-season, none of them can self-create scoring opportunities at the level Herro can.
MPJ it is finally your time to shine
Throughout the series, we’ve seen the entire Nuggets squad get involved in the action. Jokic, the ever reliable superstar, and Murray will always find a way to impact the game - but it’s the success of the role players that is truly a testament to Denver’s roster construction. Whether it’s Aaron Gordon punishing mis-matches, Christian Braun being the spark-plug off the bench, or KCP hitting daggers from downtown: the squad is stepping up. The only player yet to play at or above the level we expect from them is Michael Porter Jr. So far he’s an ice cold 3-22 (13.6%) from behind the three-point-arc. *Surely* this is the game where he breaks out of his slump? For context, he shot 42.4% from three against the Lakers, 37.8% against the Suns and 42.8% against the Timberwolves.
To his credit, he has made an effort to cut off the ball and try to get to the free-throw line, but for a player who signed a 5 year, $179,299,750 contract - those are contributions that could be made by a role player on a minimum salary, not your team’s supposed third star. Having said that, the Nuggets have been winning so too much criticism is harsh, but it’s nice to win when you’ve given it your best shot - not when your teammates have carried you.
Was this over before it began?
Denver’s superstars are clearly playing at a much higher level than Miami’s. Denver’s role players are stepping up at a much higher level than Miami’s. Whilst it may not be popular to say, Mike Malone is coaching at a higher level than Erik Spoelstra (obviously coaching is easier when you have better players, but as discussed in the article the other day, Miami need to make defensive adjustments that did not show up in Game 4). To put it bluntly, the Heat are simply overmatched.
They put up a valiant effort to get to this point, and made history with an impressive playoff run taking out the Bucks, Knicks, and Celtics. Having said that, if it wasn’t for Jamal Murray missing a three-pointer to send Game 2 to overtime, this series would be over already. The Heat have only scored over 100 points in one of the games, Game 2 which they won, and that was the only game in which they shot over 33.3% from three 9a scorching 48.9%). Credit to Denver to closing the gaps on Miami’s shooters, their attempts have decreased as the series has progressed. Perhaps the only way Miami win this game is to catch fire from deep and somehow shoot over 45% from behind the arc.
As much as Jimmy Butler might portray confidence that this series isn’t over when he speaks to the media, this series is pretty much wrapped up. If the Nuggets don’t play with their food (yes, food, not meat according to Doc Rivers) and get out to an early lead in this game - the Heat may just roll over and accept their fate.
Having said all of that, it would be the most 2023 playoffs thing ever for Miami to take the win tonight. I’ll be tuned-in and I hope you will too, but if you don’t feel like staying up until 04:30am, the Hoop Genius Podcast will be ready for you at 07:00am to break down everything you need to know.
Oh, and don’t worry, even if the Finals do end tonight - this newsletter isn’t going anywhere. We still have a lot more to talk about, so sign up right now for free, or if you want to support my journey, we have a limited time offer to subscribe for just £1 here.