3 things that could be the Suns downfall
Phoenix are now favourites to win the West after adding Kevin Durant, but here are the things that could derail their quest for a championship.
As the dust settles on what might have been one of the most exciting trade deadlines we’ve ever seen, it’s time for all of us to take a deep breath and maybe even try to get a little sleep (without the constant paranoia of a trade happening during the night.) In my last piece, I wrote about the impact of Brooklyn moving Kyrie Irving & Kevin Durant, I would love if you read that one first before continuing, but nevertheless – below are my thoughts on the Phoenix Suns gaining Kevin Durant and the possible issues that could arise.
The Western Conference this season is wide open. The reigning champion Warriors have struggled and now with Steph’s injury, it will be interesting to see how they progress. The Clippers have, as usual, had their superstar duo missing considerable time out of the line-up. The Lakers are 13th so we don’t need to discuss them right now – even though they might have had the best trade deadline aside from Phoenix. It remains to be seen how well Luka & Kyrie will play together in Dallas. The Nuggets, Grizzlies, Kings, and Pelicans have all shows stretches of great basketball – but no one has separated themselves ahead of the pack as a team you would think for certain will be going to the NBA Finals. Enter: the new-look Phoenix Suns who overnight turned into the favourites to win the conference.
The biggest question mark many have over the Suns legitimacy as contenders is their depth, but let’s be honest here, there are only a few months left to play of the regular season before the Playoffs begin where we all know rotations shorten up as the game slows down. Coach Monty Williams now has the ability to stagger his line-up, so that an elite scorer (Book or KD) is on the court at all times. They can now also always have two of Booker/Durant/Paul/Ayton on the court and find out the combinations that gel best. Plus, speaking of depth: the rest of the roster isn’t as bad as you might be assuming. Craig, Lee, Landale, Biyombo, Okogie, Shamet & Payne have all proven that they can contribute in a positive manner. That’s without mentioning TJ Warren who also came over in the trade from Brooklyn.
So as you can tell, I’m pretty excited to see this Suns team in action. Sure, they can improve their depth on the buy-out market, but even without that, having two of the best scorers in the NBA on the same roster is never a bad idea (if we ignore the latest era of the Brooklyn Nets). Durant, Booker and Paul are all assassins in the mid-range which is a pillar of Playoff success, and systemically: the Suns love “Spain” pick-and-rolls and as this video demonstrates, Kevin Durant fits perfectly into this scheme due to his versatility.
So what could possibly go wrong? Here are the three things that I believe could derail Phoenix’ hopes for a championship.
1) Health
Now this is slightly unfair, as no one can control the bad luck of injuries, however there are some facts we must take into account. Despite Kevin Durant playing at an NBA level when he’s on the court, he’s not been on the court for more than 55 games since his final season in Golden State in 2018/19. He’s still currently out with the isolated MCL sprain in his right knee he suffered on January 8th in Miami, and the 13x All-Star still doesn’t have a timetable on his return meaning we can’t expect to see him suiting up for the Suns until after the All-Star break at the earliest. Speaking of star players being out, face of the franchise Devin Booker left with a groin injury early in the first quarter of a 128-125 overtime loss on Christmas Day to the Denver Nuggets. He returned on the 7th of February against Brooklyn and scored 19 points (6-15 FG) before missing the game against Atlanta two days later, and then dropping 21 points in Indiana the following night.
3x BJ Armstrong made an interesting point on our podcast recently, that groin injuries tend to linger so we don’t know the full extent of Booker’s availability moving forward. As much as great players find a way to figure it out on the court, there isn’t a lot of time remaining before the playoffs for the roster to gel on the court. The Suns sit in 5th place in the West and have 24 games remaining of regular season basketball. Perhaps this means they’re the favourites for next season after they’ve had a summer to add depth and work together during the summer and training camp, rather than being favourites to win it all this season.
It goes without saying that another injury to Durant or Booker ends this team’s chances this season, but that same logic can be applied to any team losing one of their top two player eg. The Bucks who were favourites to win the East last season ended up crashing out to the Celtics as their second best player, Khris Middleton, was out with injury.
It’s also worth remembering that Mikal Bridges, who they traded away for Durant, is the NBA’s most consistent player when it comes to availability. He’s played in every game for the Suns since 2020/21 season. He trails only the 21 year old Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle (coached by Tom Thibodeau so you know he’s never getting a rest) in terms of minutes played this season with 2,040. Without Bridges and Johnson on the roster, the depth could become an issue when it comes to staying afloat when superstars miss games. They did however, decide not to trade Chris Paul who has missed 36% of games so far this season, despite rumours that they were looking to head in a different direction. Add to this, he is 37 years old and has a tendency to get injured during the post-season, not to mention his game has clearly declined this season.
2) Deandre Ayton
Speaking of Chris Paul, who supposedly is the 3rd member of the new so-called “big 3”, he isn’t in my opinion the player who needs to be the 3rd star on this team. It’s time for the #1 pick from the 2018 draft, Deandre Ayton, to step up. Ayton has shown stretches of players where he’s looked like one of the top 3 centers in the league, but hasn’t had the consistency to take that next step to borderline all-star level. Players picked after him in his draft, namely Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Jaren Jackson Jr & Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, have all gone on to reach All-Star status yet that is a level that continue to elude the 24 year old Ayton who has been criticised at times for his passive play.
What fascinates me is that the Brooklyn Nets didn’t insist that Deandre Ayton was included in this trade. Why would a rebuilding team not want a former #1 pick that still has serious potential? Add to that the concerns as around Ayton who clearly didn’t want to return to Phoenix this summer, and instead signed a contract with the Indiana Pacers before the Suns forced him to return by matching his salary. Then there are rumours that he didn’t speak to his coach for the entire off-season as the two continue to look as if there’s an issue with their chemistry. Perhaps the addition of an all-time great like Durant will re-invigorate Ayton, and if so, I put them firmly as the favourites in the West. If he can’t adjust to another star joining the team and falls into a shell of himself, the Phoenix Suns might be in trouble.
Ayton’s biggest responsibility will be on the defensive end of the court. Phoenix traded away their best defensive player in Mikal Bridges, Booker isn’t known as a defensive stopper, and with Chris Paul aging as we’ve discussed: Ayton’s ability to protect the paint is going to be relied upon more than ever before in his NBA career. We’ve seen his effort lack on defence when he feels as if he’s not involved enough in the offence. Luckily for him, adding one of the best scorers in the NBA could actually make it easier for him to score, and keep him motivated on defence. He’ll flourish in transition, be a constant lob threat, and when teams throw double-teams at Booker or Durant, he’ll be able to be aggressive against scrambling defences that could end up with a smaller defender on him. If Chris Paul & DeAndre Ayton run a pick-and-roll, you can’t help off Durant or Booker on the wings or else it’ll end in a bucket from downtown. Don’t help, and it’s a dunk for Ayton. Then he can run back, hyped, and contribute on defence too.
3) Getting comfortable
It’s not just the mentality of Ayton that is in question, it’s the entire team. Phoenix have been in position to be crowned champions in both of the previous seasons. In 2021 they made the NBA Finals and held a 2-0 lead, before losing 4 straight game to the Milwaukee Bucks. Last season, they were a 64-win team that ran away with the regular season and held another 2-0 lead in the Playoffs before getting taken to Game 7 and being utterly humiliated by Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. My message to the Suns is simple: don’t get comfortable.
I referenced the late great Nipsey Hussle in my previous article, and in the about section of this newsletter, so it’s only right I continue the theme and give you a quote that applies here. ”I’ve never been one of those people that can feel comfortable being careless.. the things that possibly could happen, if I ain’t take real steps to prevent those things, I ain’t comfortable.”
Although I said earlier that the West is wide open, it’s important to bear in mind that other teams have improved too at the trade deadline. Although the Lakers are fighting for a play-in spot, they’ve added to their depth like no one thought was possible. If they make it to the Playoffs with a healthy LeBron & AD, they’re a match-up that no one wants to see. If the Pelicans have a healthy Zion Williamson & Brandon Ingram, they are an absolute juggernaut. The Grizzlies added even more shooting in Luka Kennard, and the Nuggets got Thomas Bryant to stop them collapsing any time Nikola Jokic needs to take a rest.
If the Suns do find themselves 2-0 up against an opponent with the superstar qualities of a Doncic or Antetokounmpo, they can’t allow themselves to take their foot off the gas for a third time. Kevin Durant will need to install his championship experience from his time with the Warriors, and not play like he did for the Thunder in 2016 when they choked away a 3-1 series lead against Golden State in the Western Conference Finals.
Championship or bust?
The Suns have gone all-in on winning a championship now, and it HAS to work out. Anything less than a championship in the next three seasons could lead to disaster for the Phoenix Suns.
Over the past 3 seasons I’ve preached that if Phoenix want to win an NBA championship, Booker needs to step up and make the transition from star to superstar. Now with Kevin Durant, the pressure is off Book, and he’ll probably get easier scoring looks as he’s now the #2 scoring option on the team rather being the primary offensive threat.
Unlike Chris Paul and Kevin Durant, the 26 year old Devin Booker is only entering his prime now, and if he gets to 30 years old without an NBA championship things could turn sour very quickly. After this season, Durant has 3 years left on his $194,219,320 contract, and by then Chris Paul will be 40. The Suns have traded away their future picks for a run at the ultimate prize this season, and perhaps the following two seasons after, so if that mission is failed: Book could be wondering if Phoenix is the right place for him on his quest for a ring.
That’s a long time away, and purely hypothetical. For the record, the Suns can pay Booker more than any other team so it’s likely he sticks around long-term and is seen as having great loyalty (eg. Damian Lillard) so we don’t need to worry about him asking out any time soon. What we do need to worry about is: their health, the play of DeAndre Ayton, and their championship integrity. I am so excited to see this Suns team when they’re all healthy and on the court together. Join the conversation in our discord to share your opinions on whether you think they’ll be holding an NBA championship soon or not.